Auction pricing on OOP Estes kits
 

Gerry Fortin put together a great list tracking auction prices on OOP Estes kits. You can view it here:

http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/home.htm

Hey, I think I bought most of those kits..... :chuckle:

I have a few on that list...... I also see a handfull that arent very accurate. Thats just the ones that I was involved in.

#1281 Alien Invader High Price $75 Low Price $48

I saw one in mint condition go for $110 ,that was for charity or something,dont remember. I also got REAL lucky and was refreshing my ebay search page one night and caught someone putting one up for $35 buy it now. I jumped all over it.....

Ken

Ken,

This is Gerry Fortin. Thanks for checking the Estes kit database. Please be aware that I do not include any Buy It Now information as those listings are not true auctions and are an inadequate measure of kit value through open bidding. As for the stated higher price that is not listed in the database, can you please specific the date of the auction so I can add to the database? Many thanks.

To all other readers....it is a pleasure to be part of this community. This is my second BAR event and hopefully I will stay with model rocketry for years to come.

A short personal introduction is probably in order. My primary interest for 20+ years has been rare American Liberty Seated dimes minted from 1837-1891. After years of researching the series, I published a web-book at www.seateddimevarieties.com. From the numismatic experience, I decided to try a new collecting pursuit and Estes kits seem to be an obvious choice. Since there was a lack of public pricing guide, I though it might be interesting to assemble one and attempt to determine the relative scarcity of individual kits. After 1 year of tablulating eBay prices on a best effort basis, I decide to offer the information to the public via my website. It is possible that I missed some kit listings across one year's time. I also will dismiss any kits that are opened or obviously damaged from the database.

Thanks, Gerry.

My insurance agent has been bugging me to get her a price estimate on the boxes of old kits I have.

I don't have an excuse now. :o

Very cool list Gerry, thanks for posting it. Having bought a number of OOP kits on ebay over the last couple of years, I know just what a nightmare tracking these must have been. :eek:

But the OC in me will now make me spend time looking to see how my buying went. ;)

Right off the bat I noticed this one:

Congratulations on winning this item! The next step is to pay the seller.
Mini Shuttle !RARE! New Mint Condition Estes OOP #1391
Sale price: $18.51 + Shipping: $6.50 = Total: 25.01
04/28/08


Woohoo, feeling good about that buy.... :D

If I run across anymore I'll let you know.

Thanks again,
Mikus

Glad that members are finding the listing useful. Indeed, it is a challenge to keep up with each day's new listings, placing them on the watch list and then updating the database on weekends. Since I work in China most of the time, there is amble time to "keep up" with the eBay activities; the alternative is to be in bars and ruin my liver. I'll take model rockets any day as the monies potentially spent in bars can buy more kits!

Will update the database as members point out a high or low price that I've missed.

Thanks a bunch for doing this Gerry. You the man!! :cool:

First thing I noticed were that there seems to be no distinction between the Citation Boxed kits and the non-Citation bagged kits.

I know many folks like to call the bagged 0652 Patriot - "Citation" to differentiate form the (military) Patriot version, but in truth all of the Citation models differ from the later bagged version.
and - Not to mention the boxed Citation kits average well over $150-$200 more than their non-Citation bagged version.

For example:
Model • Citation Boxed • Non-Citation Bagged
Bomarc • Glider Recovery • Parachute recovery
Quasar • Chrome finish/Clipped fins • White finish/unclipped fins
SS Vega • Pods w/NC & Chrome wrap • Truncated Pods/Red Wrap
Patriot • 2 Pc. NC/Longer Stars&Stripes Decal • Blow Molded NC/Truncated S&S Decal
Der Red Max • 2 Piece NC • Blow Molded 1 Pc. NC

I plan to finish the catalog kit list this weekend so the website link will be consistent with Estes kits through 2008. Again, I am not tracking the "starter sets' or the RTFs. Really doubt that I will be able to capture the new eBay kit prices from the past week. That will have to wait until next weekend for a two week update.

Thanks to everyone for their comments and information; will add those into the database this weekend.

Gerry

Hi Der Red Max

Can I assume that the Citation kits are numbered as "KC-x" while the non Citation versions are numbered as 065x? If that is the case, then it is simple to change the database accordingly and also to track boxed vs. bagged kits.

Correct.

A quick update is in order. The database is now accessible via three links due to the size of the database file and ongoing upload problems with my ISP. Actually, breaking the database into three tables also helps with download speed and my ability to add further segmentation of the earlier kits by no hangtag/with hangtag.

A kit name cross reference table is under construction as a fair number of eBay listings do not use the catalog number.

Finally, I threw in the top 10 active and expensive kit tables on the home page for a bit of decoration..... One of these days, I need to get home and add a few rocket pics to really decorate....

Feb28 - Update.......

Database is current. Enjoy

March 25 Update
 

Hi everyone....

The Estes kit database was updated as of March 25 and the Estes kit name to catalog cross reference list is also finished. I would like to hear feedback about the Top 10 active and highest priced kit tables. Do you find them useful before clicking on the individal database pages?

Since announcing the database on this forum, the BAR website link has been visited about 500 times; an encouraging statistic.

Finally, I was able to buy a Blue Bird Zero kit for reasonable monies today.......this is kit number 354 in the growing collection.

Heh, was that you that paid $70+ for one?

Anybody know the value of an original Estes Honest John? The regular size, not the Maxi. I don't have the year. But it had the green facecard.

Reason for my curiosity is that at NARCON, we had one as a door prize, and one of the young kids in the club got it. I watched her father's eye bug out when she got it.

Thanks.


Bob

That came from Mark Mayfield's collection as a donation to NARCON, along with an Arcon-Hi and Streak. They were in my possession for about two hours if there is any drool on them. :D

The Honest John with green facecard sells for average price of $117 on eBay. There have been two sold in the past year at $170 and $64. Quite a large spread but I don't remember if the $64 kit was mint.

Scott....yes that was me. I was thrilled to secure the kit for under $100.

A Mars Snooper for $347?

Wow ... I have the Limited Edition boxed, and while not as old, makes me wonder if I should just keep it. I was ready to build it, but maybe I should just buy the BMS clone, and save this one.

There is a significant difference in pricing for the Collectors Series Mars Snooper (#2093) vs. earlier K-20 kits. The Collector Series only brings about $50 so probably is not as "collectable" as an original and mint K-20 kit. Don't know the typical price of a BMS clone kit + shipping but have to believe that building a Collector Series Snooper is a reasonable decision.

A BMS kit would be $40.95, no ups, no extras. (Unless Bill has changed his $6 flat fee for shipping.)

April 5 Update
 

The April 5 update is online. I've noticed that the earlier K kits are bringing strong money of late. Take a look at the Top 10 Expensive Kits table and it becomes evident that demand is there from collectors for the early K kits.

I was able to buy a number of "difficult" if not rare 1980s kits this weekend on eBay for reasonable monies. How many of you have a Magician is your collection? This is a known rare kit that I snagged for about $40. Other purchases included the WASP, Tartar and Nova Scout Ship (also rare). Also picked up a Black Bryant III and a Sky Hi; both for $28 each and was most surprised that no one was paying attention.

On the other hand, there are some high prices being paid for Estes kits that I would consider to be available. Some examples include; Deep Space Transport $50, SuperNova $41 and Titan IIIE $265. This Titan IIIE is already in the high end of the Saturn V pricing space and smashed the old high price of $162 by a wide margin.

Has anyone checked out the thread about Estes K kit collection registry? I really would like company on this concept....I added a Ranger and a Spaceman recently.

Well, I look at it. But, being laid off, the only rockets I'm interested in are the $20 range. lol...

When I see real high prices like that, I often wonder if a shill or two isn't in place. Unfortunately, with the hidden bidder names eBay now employs that's almost impossible to figure out anymore.

I for one do not like the hidden bidder name scheme eBay now uses.

Am I missing something here?
http://cgi.ebay.com/Centuri-Model-R...1QQcmdZViewItem

Yes. That was the pristine starter set with sealed Astro-1, sealed Servo Launch pad, original Ray-O-Vac photo flash D cells, paperwork, and motors. Notice that the auction says to contact off-line if there are any questions. I'm sure he got a bunch of people emailing him to repost it without any mention of contents so they could bid on it.

I see,,,,,,,,,What a bummer if a empty box showed up for 255.00 :chuckle:

Scott...fully agree with you. I also dislike the new eBay approach for coding bidder names.

These occasional out of line prices could be the result of shill bidding but I do look at the bids on occasion and it appears that someone places a high "buy it" type bid followed by another person with even a larger "buy it" bid. This happened to me once during auction for Satellite Interceptor and I paid much to much.

Estes eBay Highlight Weekend April 11-12
 

Many Estes kits were auctioned this weekend. I wanted two must have kits for the collection. The Nike-X and the Saros, both in gem condition. Bought the Nike-X for about $110 but the Saros went for "moon money" at $295! Two bidders went head to head on this kit and left me in the dust...... Maybe next time.

Even opened and partially assembled kits are now bringing strong monies. Partially assembled Saturn 1B brought $82 and a common Mercury Redstone at $55.

Saros for $295! Maybe I should sell off mine that I built ~ 1976.

The April 18th update is online.

I've expanded the earlier K kit listings to include no hangtag and with hangtag entries as no hangtag kits are slowly appearing on eBay; but one must have patience.

I did not realize that the ARV Condor was issued in a plastic bag along with the common boxed packaging.

So how many of you are using the Estes database for judging fair market pricing?

Adding individual kit pages to the database
 

You are invited to take a look at the lastest addition to the Estes kit database. As I study the early K kits, it become obvious that numerous facecard and hangtag changes were made through mid 70s. The current database is inadequate to properly track the numerous kit variations without a visual guide. So I decided to use the same Liberty Seated Dime analysis approach and to build a separate reference page for each kit variation. The first Estes design to be analyzed is the K-2 Mark since I had images from recent eBay sales and a kit that is currently listed.

When building the individual kit pages, I am borrowing images from eBay sellers until I return home from this China expat assignment and can shoot my own kits. When I do not own a kit, then there is no choice but to borrow an eBay image. My goal is educational in nature and hope that eBay sellers will not mind. In addtion, I though it might be fun to add the Estes catalog artwork for the kits. To accomplish, I'm capturing the .jpg files from Ninfinger catalogs and cropping/editing as necessary.

Here is the link that will get you to the early Estes kit database. Then scroll down to the K-2 kits and click on each link to view the individual kit pages. Again, this effort is designed to be educational and I would invite feedback and help to populate pages as they are created.

http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/data1.htm

Gerry, you are really getting this database right! All of the upgrades you are making to it will result in a very useful reference in years to come for new and veteran collectors alike. I hope you can find the time to continue this work because it's going to get very time consuming with all of the detail you're now putting in! Congratulations go out to you for your vision of bringing the rigorous approach used in coin collecting over to the world of model rocketry!

Joe

Dear Gerry,
I second Joe's comments regarding the addition of the variations that are so important to the value of a collectible kit. The variations (and there can be a dozen or more for a single kit) can mean the difference in hundreds of dollars regarding value in some cases. Also, I would encourage you to go far beyond the past year's prices realized on eBay in determining a high, low and median range of prices. (Joe, by the way, has the most comprehensive realized price list, in an Excel document, that I've ever seen, going back five or more years. Joe, hope you don't mind me mentioning that! But of course it's proprietary to Joe because he's done a great deal of work on this. His list literally has hundreds of entries, regarding Estes, Centuri (and other) kits, with variations noted.)

Of course, the current year is always important (especially in this economy) in knowing what a kit might bring now as opposed to five years ago. But it's still good to track these things over a much longer period of time than a single year in determining their value. In fact, it's even more important because it gives you an idea of what the kits brought in an "up" economy versus what they're bringing in a "down" economy.

When I was editor of Art & Antiques magazine, for instance, I covered sales of art and furniture often at Sotheby's and Christie's. I once saw a Goddard-Townsend 18th Century kneehole desk go from $30,000 to $3.5 million in less than a minute. (Two bidders wanted it and neither wanted to give it up.) Would that same desk go for that amount today. Maybe, maybe not, but in determining its value, I would always take that sale into account. I only wish I owned that desk, no matter the price! :)

As for images, some of us can probably help you in that regard. Sorry for such a long post regarding this. As Joe said, you are to be commended for doing this. It's great to have your experience from the world of numismatics brought to model rocketry.

All best,
Mark

Mark, I don't mind the fact that you mentioned it. And if Gerry's list continues to evolve into the valuable document I think it could be, I will gladly send my information over to him for incorporation into his database.

Joe

Dear Mark and Joe,

Your kind word are much appreciated as is the insight into the additional research informaton that might be stored in privates databases.

If you read my bio, I am passionate about numismatics but have taken the Liberty Seated Dime research to a point of diminishing returns. After jumping back into model rocketry, it was obvious that early Estes kits are quite historical and they do have an adequate collecting community. But pricing, population and rarity information were not easily available (on the web) thus the idea to take the numismatic approach and apply it to Estes model rocket kits. I do love to research the unknown (at least unknown to me) but also enjoy using the internet to publish that information and to create a community.

Currently, I work in China as an expat but that "adventure" will come to an end this year with a return to Maine for a semi permanent retirement. To fill the open time, I have aspirations to upgrade the Liberty Seated Dime reference website with improved photography and secondly, to build a comprehensive Estes model rocketry website in the same manner. It is recognized that I'm a newbie to Estes model rocketry and may be "discovering" what is already known by the "elders" of the hobby. I hope that we can collaborate towards a common vision of a state of the art Estes reference website. It will take time and information. The more information that can be secured through prior research the better else it becomes a personal project mainly from watching eBay every day.

The idea of posting historical kit pricings to show shifts in up/down economies is excellent. If you had access to the subscription portion of the Seated Dime website, you would notice that I publish the pricing trends (Coin World) from 1963 through 2003. Collectors can clearly see the appreciate potential of rare coins. I'm sure there is a similar trend from rare Estes kits with ups/downs from a year to year basis due to macroeconomics.

Again thank-you for the inputs and I will continue the slow updates. If you do wish to send me "personal and private" information for review and ideas to post, I will respect that private nature of the information until there is a consensus for opening to the public.

May 1 Update
 

Well it is May Day here in China and a national holiday. The free time from office will allow for updates to the Estes model rocket database. So far, here are the updates that readers will note;

1. Top 10 eBay Pricing and Count tables are updated and expanded to Top 15. The Maxi Pershing is in top spot as most expensive kit in the Estes line up. The Count table clearly shows that scale models are always popular (11/15 are replica model kits).

2. All three database tables updated to April 30 pricing activities. In general, pricing seem to be drifting down a bit due to the recession.

3. Table 3 with Estes kits starting at catalog #2000 onward was updated with the 7000 series boxed kits, the 2400 series 2009 kits, 2800 series Germany boxed kits, 3000 series kits to be released this summer and the 7200 Walmart series kits that are now appearing on eBay.

Also look for individual model rocket page insertions throughout the database. This is a time consuming exercise but I do hope to add at least 10 pages per week and hopefully finish the database in 1-2 years time.

Also need to update the cross reference table with the 2009 kits......much to do!

I am heading home during second half of May and can't wait to spend some time on unfinished rocket projects.

Well the May 10th eBay kit update is online.

Building the individual kit pages is taking much longer than I had hoped for but there is some limited progress in the database 1 and 2 tables.

eBay prices are tending on the weak side.

Enjoy!

Yo Gerry, the Kit Catalog Numbers 0650 - 1299 listing is broken at 867. :(


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