Carl,

Very nice analysis.

I was the one who asked Barry about the relative size difference between Estes today and the 1970s. I was hoping his answer would put to bed once and for all the nonsense on these forums that a return to 1970s product and marketing would somehow improve Estes business. His answer revealed a very different reality than that supposed by many on these forums. I am very grateful he took the time to answer that additional question.

That Estes hobby-market business tripled as a result of the Walmart offerings is also an amazing piece of information. Even if the Walmart sales generate very little net income (which I doubt is the case), using that "loss leader" to triple the size of the hobby market suggests Estes cares way more about the hobby market than many here give them credit for.

What is particularly interesting to me is that while Estes model rocket sales have grown substantially over the last 30 years, participation in the NAR hasn't. Many here have equated the tiny size and stagnant growth of the NAR with a failure to grow the hobby. Barry's answers suggest that that isn't the case and it's certainly changed my perception of where the hobby stands vis a vis the NAR. Participation in launching model rockets (from Estes alone) has apparently grown a lot since the 1970's. And the proliferation of small hobby market model rocket manufacturers has grown as well. But the NAR hasn't grown commensurately. Why? I suspect that has less to do with Estes lack of participation with the NAR than it does with what the NAR offers the public.

I personally like what the NAR offers, and I participate. But maybe it's time I let go of the notion that how the NAR is doing is somehow a reflection of how the hobby as a whole is doing.