So I'm starting to get into (and get obsessed with!) collecting old kits. I haven't paid any stupid expensive prices yet, but I've paid $30-$40 for a few old kits. One of my justifications to myself is that I can always recover this in future if I decide to sell them - and maybe even make a profit!

Then a horrible thought occurred to me - what if demand for these old kits actually wanes? What if, as the old rocketeers die, no one cares any more about the early history of the hobby? Instead of increasing or at least maintaining their value, my expensive collection might be worth nothing at all!

So here's the stupid question, which is stupid of course because no one can predict the future, but I'm curious as to your thoughts anyway:

Where is the collecting of old kits headed? Do you think it will remain a vibrant subset of the rocketry community? Or will it die off and the value of the old kits go to 0?

Eagerly awaiting your prognostications,

Joe

I think the value will remain until all us old rocket folks start dieing off. The younger generation doesn't see any value in them.

I don't think the value of the collectible kits will start dropping until the people that got into model rocketry in the 60's and 70's start dying off in large numbers.
I seriously doubt the values will drop much before 2040 or so, if ever.

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so it sounds like you guys are echoing my suspicion - that the value of the old kits is mostly nostalgia of the folks who were there when they were new. the kits don't have intrinsic value as a record of the early days of the hobby. that would suggest that for someone like me, who doesn't have the nostalgia, buying kits just to hold 'em (and not build 'em) for posterity is probably a fruitless exercise, 'cause posterity doesn't want 'em!

If you plan to hold them long term and expect the value to increase like a real GT-40 or Shelby Cobra, I agree that it's not likely to be fruitful. If you'd like to grab some and turn them over for a profit in a few years when they become harder to find, go for it. I have a few kits saved, some sealed, some opened so that I could clone them before we got the online resources we have today. I have only built one of my vintage kits, the Interceptor. Within a few weeks of me opening the bag, I found out that Estes was reissuing it.

The current Interceptor is nothing like the original.....look at it that way.
Right now, the value of kits, even the older ones on ebay are not the same as a year ago, why, the economy.

The hobby has been around for 50 years now, and, I don't think that saving the older kits would be foolish, on the contrary, if a "model rocket museum" were looking to fill out their collection, then, you could donate them, sell them or at least let them borrow them with the understanding that they would come back to you.

The Smithsonian has a good collection of rockets from the Stine collection housed in the garber Facility in Maryland, which will eventually be move over to the Dulles facility.

Look at it this way, Why do we have museums..........to protect the past for future generations.

I think it's like everything else. (MNSHO) That is, the overall trend will be for increasing value - like most things antiquish in nature - but there will be oscillations in the short term. Things will heat up and cool off periodically thus causing values to go up and down, but long term I think the old kits (sealed, NIB, etc) will continue to accrue value.

While the 60's rocketeers are approaching the knee of the curve, there are still new rocketeers out there who care about the past. The fact that they are fewer in number can affect demand negatively. OTOH, with a new generation, many of these OOP kits will then be another 20-25 years oldER which should affect the demand positively.

IOW, there may be fewer buyers, but they'll be bidding on rarer items. So I think the overall trend will be positive. (Just like the stock market, eh?)

The thing to avoid is buying during short term peaks. For example, various outside events will affect participation in the hobby and thus affect demand for old stuff. In my case, the movie October Sky rekindled my interest, and when I came back I was mightily bummed to learn that A8-0's, B14's and 1/100 Sat 1B's weren't just sitting idly on the shelf patiently waiting for my return. Alas, unlike 1971, I had the money but Estes no longer had the products So I've had to pony up some bucks for some of this stuff.

Anyway, I've seen some fluctuations, and I think similar sorts of events will continue to impact the market. But overall, I expect the values to continue increasing.


Doug

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I have never bought an OOP kit for the purpose of collecting and selling some day, I think there are better ways to make money. I enjoy opening up a sealed OOP and putting it together and watching it fly. This means a lot more to me than collecting to have a bag of balsa, cardboard and paper sitting in a closet. As far as cost goes, there are not too many sports or hobbies where you get your money back. Yes you could spend up to 3000 or 5000 dollars collecting a lot of vintage new in bag Estes kits, but to me the satisfaction of building the kit is worth it. If you just want to build OOP kits and fly them, why not clone them? Much cheaper and easier to get. I got back into rocketry because I was wasting my money on meaningless weekend adventures. I sold off my desert toys and began scaling back on my adventures. For me getting back into rocketry has saved me money. Some of the questions you should ask yourself before buying old kits is this, 1. Does the cost of a 50 to 100.00 model kit fit into my budget? 2. What am I going to do with this kit? 3. Do I want the satisfaction of owning and building the original or do I want to build a clone and modify to current building standards. I have a hobby room with my OOP kits built and I have a lot of satisfaction walking into the room and seeing them on display. My desert toys sat in storage where I could only see them a few times a year. I just got done flying some of my OOP kits and posted pictures in the Mission Control section. I firmly believe the only people interested in old kits are the fliers from the 60's 70's and 80's. I seriously doubt the kids of the 90's and today are going to want to collect old rockets. So if you want the OOP Estes kits, I say purchase them and build them, what else would you do with them in the future?

scigs, my interest isn't in trying to make money or have my hobby pay for itself. My interest in the old kits is in owning a piece of model rocket history. As a somewhat (or maybe VERY according to my wife!) obsessive person I also like collecting things, and the idea of building a complete collection of Estes rockets, or at least completing the early years, is appealing. There are very few things one might collect that you could actually collect ALL of, without spending millions!
So, I do enjoy collecting the older kits and just keeping them in the bag. And, as you say, I can build a clone and have the best of both worlds - the original to keep, and a clone to fly.
The reason for my question is, I'm not sure I do want to collect if it means paying thousands to create a collection that become worthless in a short time. If I am going to invest that kind of money I would like relatively high odds that I can recover a large portion of my investment if I need to/decide to move on. Make sense?
And by the way I'm inclined to agree with you - I think these old kits are really only valuable to the folks who used them back when. I suppose there will always be a few oddballs like me who are interested in the early days, and like collecting, but as cloning becomes easier and more popular the need to collect the actual kits will wane.
For my own part, I think rather than trying to collect ALL the old kits, I may just focus on a few of the early years, or kits that really flip my fancy. That way I can have a piece of history but not sink my life savings into it.

Joecool, I don't think these rockets will decrease in value in a short time, but they possibly can over time. It is hard to tell what the young rocketeers will be interested in 20 years from now. I thought the same way you did, collect a few rockets from back in the day. I ended up collecting most of the 1979 catalog and them some. After all my finances are covered. I have a budgeted amount for rocketry, so as long as I stay within my means, I am happy. I really enjoy building the actual kit vs cloning, but that is me. I am also glad for companies like Semroc so that cloning is possible. When I collect a kit there are a couple of things I do before I build it. One is I order the clone parts from Semroc, this is so in the future if I want another I can build it. The next thing I do is scan the decal and duplicate it in Coreldraw. Then it is ready for print on my Alps printer. By the way, there is nothing wrong with being obsessive.