Ye Olde Rocket Forum - View Single Post

Here’s a quote that kinda puts things into perspective. At this point, it’s seems to be primarily about ‘buying time’. In other words, trying to keep the peak of the outbreak as ‘flat’ as possible.

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“First, the numbers to date: More than 1,300 US cases were reported as of Thursday, with beachhead community outbreaks in Washington state, California, and New York. Cities like Atlanta, Miami, Boston, and Denver are reporting dozens of cases each. Total case numbers have grown at a rough average rate of 30% a day in the US since the last week of February.

At that rate, the US will have more than 8,000 cases by next week, 40,000 cases in two weeks, and nearly 150,000 cases by the end of the month.

“By the peak of the outbreak last month in Wuhan, nearly 20,000 patients were hospitalized simultaneously, with 10,000 in severe or critical condition. If a Wuhan-like outbreak were to take place in a US city, even with people isolating themselves, the study authors concluded, “hospitalization and ICU (intensive care unit) needs from COVID-19 patients alone may exceed current capacity.”

Another model from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health suggests that a “moderate” scenario for the coronavirus pandemic, akin to a 1968 flu pandemic, could lead to 1 million people in the US requiring hospitalization this year. A “severe” outbreak would hospitalize 9.6 million people.

Social distancing will be a necessity to prevent more severe scenarios.

"A little more alarm is needed," said epidemiologist Caroline Buckee of Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "We need people to start taking personal responsibility for social distancing right away."
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I’ll be one of the first to say I hope all this fear and handwringing will turn out to be just that. However, it would seem prudent at this point to do all we reasonably can to prevent some of these ‘worser’ case scenarios from coming true.

None of us are getting any younger. Ten years ago I was healthy as a horse. Then, out of nowhere I found out I had asthma (adult onset), but well managed and doesn’t seem to cause me any trouble...until I get a little chest cold. Then, things get a little more dicey. Then about six years ago I blew out a lumbar disc in my back, like super-big time. Former Air Force neurosurgeon who did my surgery (‘miracle worker’ is my name for him) said it was in the top five worst ruptured discs he had ever seen. I literally could barely walk for a month before I was able to have the surgery. Had never been out of work on disability in my life before that and never thought I would. I’ve learned that it CAN happen to me. I’m getting older, and though I’m still in pretty good overall health for a 57 year old, I found out that things can change and they can change quickly.

Some of us still have parents. My Dad still survives and he is a VERY active 83 year old. But, he has cardiac issues (both he and his Dad had heart attacks at age 53...and both were thin, active people. High cholesterol though) and he is right in the middle of the densest outbreaks on the other side of Georgia from me (he and his wife are in Marietta, GA). Georgia just recorded their first death in a hospital just a handful of miles from where he lives.

For ALL those older than us in similar circumsatnaces and for the many, many younger ones who are also in not so good health, the rest of us should try to do what we can now to at least slow the progression of this to keep it as manageable as possible.

Sorry for the long post....

Earl