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  #11  
Old 03-12-2020, 12:58 PM
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Gus Gus is offline
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Bunny,

Good responsible decision.

As an emergency physician I can tell you with total honesty that we are not at all prepared for this current virus. The idea that this is a fiction of the mainstream media is just ludicrous.

When Dr. Fauci gets really worried, you should, too. Read what Fauci told congress today and yesterday.

Bunny, thanks for doing what you can to mitigate exposure.

Steve Kristal, MD
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  #12  
Old 03-12-2020, 05:38 PM
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Ok, now we actually have weigh-in by an actual credible medical professional we can believe.
Thanks for the statement, Steve.
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  #13  
Old 03-12-2020, 06:59 PM
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Thanks Steve.

P.s. I didn’t know you were an MD!
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  #14  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:12 PM
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Here’s a quote that kinda puts things into perspective. At this point, it’s seems to be primarily about ‘buying time’. In other words, trying to keep the peak of the outbreak as ‘flat’ as possible.

============
“First, the numbers to date: More than 1,300 US cases were reported as of Thursday, with beachhead community outbreaks in Washington state, California, and New York. Cities like Atlanta, Miami, Boston, and Denver are reporting dozens of cases each. Total case numbers have grown at a rough average rate of 30% a day in the US since the last week of February.

At that rate, the US will have more than 8,000 cases by next week, 40,000 cases in two weeks, and nearly 150,000 cases by the end of the month.

“By the peak of the outbreak last month in Wuhan, nearly 20,000 patients were hospitalized simultaneously, with 10,000 in severe or critical condition. If a Wuhan-like outbreak were to take place in a US city, even with people isolating themselves, the study authors concluded, “hospitalization and ICU (intensive care unit) needs from COVID-19 patients alone may exceed current capacity.”

Another model from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health suggests that a “moderate” scenario for the coronavirus pandemic, akin to a 1968 flu pandemic, could lead to 1 million people in the US requiring hospitalization this year. A “severe” outbreak would hospitalize 9.6 million people.

Social distancing will be a necessity to prevent more severe scenarios.

"A little more alarm is needed," said epidemiologist Caroline Buckee of Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "We need people to start taking personal responsibility for social distancing right away."
============


I’ll be one of the first to say I hope all this fear and handwringing will turn out to be just that. However, it would seem prudent at this point to do all we reasonably can to prevent some of these ‘worser’ case scenarios from coming true.

None of us are getting any younger. Ten years ago I was healthy as a horse. Then, out of nowhere I found out I had asthma (adult onset), but well managed and doesn’t seem to cause me any trouble...until I get a little chest cold. Then, things get a little more dicey. Then about six years ago I blew out a lumbar disc in my back, like super-big time. Former Air Force neurosurgeon who did my surgery (‘miracle worker’ is my name for him) said it was in the top five worst ruptured discs he had ever seen. I literally could barely walk for a month before I was able to have the surgery. Had never been out of work on disability in my life before that and never thought I would. I’ve learned that it CAN happen to me. I’m getting older, and though I’m still in pretty good overall health for a 57 year old, I found out that things can change and they can change quickly.

Some of us still have parents. My Dad still survives and he is a VERY active 83 year old. But, he has cardiac issues (both he and his Dad had heart attacks at age 53...and both were thin, active people. High cholesterol though) and he is right in the middle of the densest outbreaks on the other side of Georgia from me (he and his wife are in Marietta, GA). Georgia just recorded their first death in a hospital just a handful of miles from where he lives.

For ALL those older than us in similar circumsatnaces and for the many, many younger ones who are also in not so good health, the rest of us should try to do what we can now to at least slow the progression of this to keep it as manageable as possible.

Sorry for the long post....


Earl
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  #15  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by astronwolf
I'll second that... I thought that a lot of this was overreaction and overreach. It didn't help that I dislike the MSM. But considering what the uncontrolled spread of disease would do to our healthcare system, some method for managing the rate at which the disease spreads seems prudent. We watched the number of flu cases in Italy jump by a two orders of magnitude in just a couple weeks. No telling what it's going to do over here. If you get hit hard by this bug you might need to get on ventilator support until your body fights off the infection - and there are only a limited number of ventilators available in your area. It would be a real bad day if you died when all you needed was access to advanced care like a ventilator. By social distancing, we're attempting to control how many people get sick all at once so that they can still expect to have access to advanced healthcare if they need it. Isolation may not keep us all from getting sick, but it might prevent a situation where you have crowds of sick people waiting in triage at the hospital.



Wolf, you've hit the nail on the head. All this stuff we read about tracking who's got it and keeping the thing under control is baloney. There are going to be lots of people walking around in the general population that have it. The REAL thing they're trying to do is to make sure we don't all get it at once, which will increase the death rate due to an overwhelmed medical system. My hope is that it will die out like flu viruses in the warmer weather. That would increase our chances of coming up with a timely vaccine.
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  #16  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:30 PM
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Michigan has closed ALL schools from next Monday through April 5th at least. No joke.
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  #17  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gus
Bunny,
Good responsible decision.
As an emergency physician I can tell you with total honesty that we are not at all prepared for this current virus. The idea that this is a fiction of the mainstream media is just ludicrous.
When Dr. Fauci gets really worried, you should, too. Read what Fauci told congress today and yesterday.
Bunny, thanks for doing what you can to mitigate exposure.
Steve Kristal, MD
As a physician perhaps you can tell me if this Facebook meme is true?
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  #18  
Old 03-13-2020, 12:10 AM
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Don't think the folks in Italy would say the case rate is leveling off. Don't think the folks in the US states of Washington, New York, California, or Massachusetts would either.

As stated above, the big question is whether our health care system can be burdened *successfully* (meaning we actually 'treat' people and don't simply start deciding--by pointing fingers--saying "they, they, and they live...no room for these others; they stay in the hall here and meet their own fate") the *potential* numbers of ICU-bound patients that could occur.

It seems a number of medical professionals are saying if we don't blunt this some how, some way this answer is No, we can't handle those numbers.

Earl
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  #19  
Old 03-13-2020, 03:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry Irvine
As a physician perhaps you can tell me if this Facebook meme is true?
Jerry,

That meme is utter nonsense. Do you really think the Chinese concocted this whole thing and closed down a significant portion of their country because it was an election year in the U.S.? How about the Italians? How about the South Koreans? Over 60 countries are currently reporting infections, all to influence the U.S. election? That's just ridiculous.

As for the infectivity reported on the meme, it means nothing. The real issue is severity of illness and mortality, which the current head of the CDC Infectious Disease, Anthony Fauci, reported to congress today as being 10 times the mortality of the flu. I know there is a concerted effort to convince people this is all just hype, but so far a large number of foreign countries have not found that to be true.

Final note. There is almost always some new disease out there, of varying concern. That list attributing one specific illness every election year is also ridiculous. Ebola has been around since the 70's. And what is the point of that, that some years someone drums up an illness to affect democrats and other years republicans? Just another piece of internet nonsense.

Here are the real dates for the diseases mentioned in the meme:

Zika - discovered 1947, first seen in humans in 1952, most recent outbreak 2007
Ebola - discovered 1976
MERS - 2002
Swine Flu - 2009 but similar H1N2 was first prevalent in 2000
Avian Flu - discovered 1996, most recent outbreak 2013 - 2017
SARS - 2003

Bottom line is that anyone telling you COVID-19 isn't really serious, isn't really serious, or they have a non-healthcare agenda they are trying to promote. That meme is utterly untrue and to the extent it encourages people to not take the current pandemic seriously, it is dangerous.

Steve

Last edited by Gus : 03-13-2020 at 03:57 AM.
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  #20  
Old 03-13-2020, 07:45 AM
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Steve-
Once again, thanks for providing us with a source of valid, rational information.
I am taking this far more seriously than a couple days ago.
GH.
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