Mobile, Alabama has a "Kick Me" sign stuck on its back...

We're preparing to 'receive' Arlene on Saturday, here at the start of the 2005 Hurricane season. All of the projections show this storm as being mostly a rain event, so we're not panic-stricken. However, there are still hundreds of homes in the area which continue to have Ivan-related damage repaired, some of these still with blue tarps covering the holes in their roofs. To say we don't need this storm is an understatement...

I've now got to go out tomorrow to put back up the wind screens I built for Ivan; I only just took down the last set of these this week...

Craig McGraw

Figures. My brother, he of the lime green/burgundy metallic Beta, leaves tomorrow for a week in Gulf Shores. That'll teach him to skip out on Sarah's birthday.

Arlene didn't blow the sign away, and neither did Cindy...

Cindy just tried to wash it away -- 4-5" of rain in less than 12 hours...

Looks like Dennis the Menace is going to take a stab at wiping our collective backsides off the coastline, this time. Already a Class 1, expected to become a Class 3 (winds between 115 and about 130, I think; same as Frederick in 1979), with some wags suggesting it might reach Class 5 status (1969 Camille-class, "Biggest Bertha", thermonuclear blast-category) before US landfall...

Sunday night through Monday looks like zero-hours for the Central Gulf Coast...

We're in the absolute center of the current NOAA "Cone Of Uncertainty" path projection...

If it's not too windy (Calm Before The Storm), I'm determined to fly some new models Saturday, even if only on A8-3's...


Craig "Standing Deep In The Heart Of Dixie, but also apparently standing in deep something-or-other" McGraw

Maybe we won't plan that post-Naram vacation for Gulf Shores after all.

__________________
Bill Eichelberger
NAR 79563

http://wallyum.blogspot.com/

I miss being SAM 0058

Build floor: Centuri Mini Dactyl Estes - Low Boom SST Semroc - Marauder, Shrike, SST Shuttle

In paint: Canaroc Starfighter Scorpion Estes F-22 Air Superiority Fighter, Multi-Roc, Solar Sailer II, Xarconian Cruiser Semroc Cyber III

Ready to fly: Estes - Solar Sailer II Semroc - Earmark, Groonie Der V 1/2

Well, we just got word that Gov. Riley has ordered all of Mobile County (500,000+ people) to evacuate, so I probably won't be flying rockets Saturday...

Mobile County has never been given such an order before. It's very confusing to people here because our neighboring county to the east, Baldwin, has only been ordered to evacuate south of US90.

I'm getting worried now about the number of folks who are going to be in harm's way with this order. There's going to be a lot of people stuck in traffic when the high winds start hitting the area. My mom and I are hunkerin' down here in Tillman's Corner (about 8 miles from downtown Mobile, following US90 west). See this image: http://www.mapquest.com/maps/refres...p?z=5&rand=7643

We have too many combatant pets to try to travel with, and nowhere to go with them even if we did. I feel safer in this wood-frame house that withstood the likes of Camille, Frederick, Georges, Opal, and Ivan than I ever would trying to outrun Dennis.

We're hoping the storm doesn't regain as much strength as it had before it struck Cuba. It's dropped for the moment to a Category 2, but the models are still saying Category 3 before landfall along the Gulf Coast.

I'll try to keep sending something as long as there's power and a phone line available...

Craig McGraw

In case anyone wondered how close the schoolyard is where I fly, see the attached images. Image #2 is where I live, image #3 is the school.

Be advised, however, both maps have the stars in the wrong place. They should be shifted to the right just a tad...

I just hope I'm no more than a tad off-kilter when Tuesday comes...

Craig...

Attached Thumbnails

   

Unreal. I don't remember another season like this one in my lifetime. Seems awful early.

__________________
Bill Eichelberger
NAR 79563

http://wallyum.blogspot.com/

I miss being SAM 0058

Build floor: Centuri Mini Dactyl Estes - Low Boom SST Semroc - Marauder, Shrike, SST Shuttle

In paint: Canaroc Starfighter Scorpion Estes F-22 Air Superiority Fighter, Multi-Roc, Solar Sailer II, Xarconian Cruiser Semroc Cyber III

Ready to fly: Estes - Solar Sailer II Semroc - Earmark, Groonie Der V 1/2

It is. The last time we had a season like this, the second half was much worse. We don't have that El Nino effect in the Pacific to drive them away. What we have is a "Bermuda High", as one weathercaster says "driving this bus" right through our neighborhood.

The winds right now (10 AM CDT on Saturday) are at 100 MPH. A far cry from the 150 MPH winds at the time it hit Cuba, but there's still 475 miles of Gulf water between us and it.

Craig

A couple of years ago, someone took all the hurricane data from the 1800's on and plotted the number and strength on a yearly basis. He noticed that there was indeed a cycle that tended to run on 40 or 50 years. Projecting from this, it was stated that we were WAY overdue for a high cycle like was experienced in the 30's and 40's. When the global warming fanatics started baying about GW causing all the hurricanes last year, this plot was published showing that the cycle started winding down in the late 50's, bottomed out in the late 70's and early 80's, and then slowly started creeping back up in the mid 80's, continuing to rise slowly all through the 90's and into 2003. They had no really good theory on what caused the cycle, except for solar energy cycles. A rough plot of solar output overlain over the hurricane plot had some similarity with a 10 year or so lead. Hopefully when the warming nazis start their everlasting whining about this year's hurricanes, this will be resurrected. The professor who did the study was blasted right and left by the warming nazis, so I don't know if he'll have the cojones to bring it back up.

Joe W

The sky is now falling here in Mobile, at 1:35 PM CDT. We were listening to the rumble of thunder for about 10 minutes before the rain started dropping. The lightning is picking up in my immediate area, but I expect this band to exit just about as quickly. The good thing about this band, it will cool us off quite a bit. The temps here are in the mid to upper 90's and should drop about 20 degrees...

Craig...